The Seed

I wrote three lines in my notebook this morning. They came out fast — the way things do when you’ve been chewing on something for months without realizing it.

Don’t chase hype blindly. Don’t ignore trends willfully. Hold your ground, embrace change, and cherish everything you have and everyone you meet.

I work in AI infrastructure. Every morning I open my laptop to a new “revolution.” Vibe coding. AI agent frameworks. Yet another startup claiming it will change everything. Last week’s trending repo is already forgotten.

But at the same time, something fundamental is shifting. GPU compute is reshaping the entire computing infrastructure. The infrastructure work I do every day didn’t exist three years ago. Ignoring these changes is just as dangerous as chasing every hot take.

The question isn’t whether to pay attention. It’s what deserves attention — and what’s just noise wearing the costume of signal.

There’s no formula. But I’ve found three anchors.

I. Don’t Chase Hype

In January 2019, WeWork was worth $47 billion. Nine months later, it couldn’t even go public. The valuation crashed 78%, the CEO cashed out $700 million before being shown the door, and the company filed for bankruptcy in 2023.

In May 2022, Terra/Luna evaporated $45 billion in a single week. FTX followed. Celsius. Three Arrows Capital. The entire crypto world fell like dominoes. The people who jumped in weren’t those who truly understood blockchain — they were those who saw everyone else making money.

The pattern is always the same: a real innovation (shared workspaces, blockchain) gets inflated by capital and FOMO until the price tag has nothing to do with the underlying value. The people who get hurt aren’t the builders — they’re the followers.

Buffett talks about the “circle of competence”:

“The size of your circle doesn’t matter. Knowing its boundaries does.”

Chasing hype is stepping outside your circle of competence while believing you’re still inside it. You don’t understand the underlying logic, but you see prices rising, others profiting, feeds buzzing — so you follow. That’s not investing. It’s imitation.

Naval Ravikant puts it more directly: “Escape competition through authenticity.” The opposite of chasing hype isn’t doing nothing — it’s honestly asking yourself: Do I actually understand this, or am I just afraid of missing out?

The AI space is going through the same cycle. In Y Combinator’s Winter 2025 batch, 25% of startups had codebases that were 95% AI-generated. Sounds cool. But research shows AI-generated code has 2.74x the security vulnerability rate of human-written code, and senior developers actually became 19% slower when using AI tools. “Vibe coding” was coined by Karpathy, but his definition was “fully giving up on understanding the code itself” — that’s a warning, not a recommendation.

The SEC has already started fining companies for “AI washing” — slapping “AI-powered” on products with no meaningful AI inside. It’s the “.com” suffix of our era.

Laozi said: The highest good is like water. Water benefits all things and does not compete.

Water doesn’t rush to be where everyone else is. It finds the low places that others avoid. And precisely because of this — nothing is stronger.

Not competing isn’t not moving. It’s not being swept along by others’ movement.

In 1975, Kodak engineer Steven Sasson built the world’s first digital camera. 10,000 pixels.

He brought it to management. Management said: Nice, but our film business makes $16 billion a year. Drop it.

In 2012, Kodak filed for bankruptcy.

Kodak’s tragedy wasn’t a technology blind spot — they invented the technology. The tragedy was that they saw the trend and chose not to look.

Blockbuster’s story is even more absurd. In 2000, Netflix came knocking with a $50 million acquisition offer. Blockbuster laughed and said no. At the time, Blockbuster had over 9,000 stores and 84,000 employees. A decade later, it filed for bankruptcy. Netflix is now worth $300 billion.

A former Blockbuster executive later admitted: “Digital would have changed Blockbuster’s business… but it wasn’t its killer. That credit belongs to Blockbuster itself.”

What kills you isn’t change — it’s your avoidance of it.

Marcus Aurelius wrote in Meditations:

“The universe is change; our life is what our thoughts make it.”

He also said: “Observe constantly that all things take place by change, and accustom thyself to consider that the nature of the Universe loves nothing so much as to change the things which are.” This isn’t self-help — it’s practical philosophy written by a Roman emperor on battlefields and during plagues. Change isn’t an exception. Change is the default state.

Laozi used water to explain this: Nothing in the world is softer or weaker than water, yet for attacking the hard and strong, nothing surpasses it.

Water doesn’t resist change. Water is change itself. It doesn’t need to become a rock to fight a rock — it flows around, seeps in, and given enough time, the rock is split open.

Trends are like water. You may not like them, but you can’t pretend they don’t exist. GPU compute is changing the computing paradigm — this isn’t hype, this is the reality of my daily work. LLMs aren’t a passing fad — they’re rewriting the fundamental assumptions of software engineering.

The difference between a trend and a hype is durability. Hype disappears when the money runs out. A trend reshapes the landscape even after the excitement fades.

The way to tell them apart is simple: when the money pulls out, is it still there?

III. Hold Your Ground, Embrace Change, Cherish Everything

If “don’t chase hype” and “don’t ignore trends” were enough, everyone would be doing it. The hard part is the third line: how do you hold your ground and embrace change at the same time?

NVIDIA gave us an answer.

In 1993, three people started a company at a Denny’s restaurant, each putting in $200. Jensen Huang later said that if he had known how hard the road would be — “a million times harder” — he might not have started. In 1997, the company had only one month of cash flow left. His go-to line in internal talks was: “We are thirty days from going out of business.”

In 2006, NVIDIA released CUDA — a platform for general-purpose GPU computing. Nobody cared. Gaming companies didn’t care. The scientific computing community didn’t care. Wall Street didn’t care.

Huang didn’t chase mobile chips when that was hot. Didn’t pivot to social media. Didn’t rebrand as a crypto company when miners were buying every GPU on the planet. He stayed on GPU compute. For thirty years.

Then the AI wave came. Suddenly, the whole world realized only NVIDIA had the infrastructure. By October 2025, NVIDIA became the first company to exceed $5 trillion in market capitalization.

Sun Tzu’s Art of War captures this in four characters: 守正出奇 — defend the orthodox, attack with the extraordinary. The “orthodox” is holding your ground — your foundation doesn’t move. The “extraordinary” is embracing change — on top of that foundation, you constantly adapt and explore. NVIDIA’s “orthodox” was GPU computing. Its “extraordinary” was that every time a new wave came, it was already ready.

Zeng Guofan, the Qing dynasty statesman, put it more bluntly:

“Shouting opinions from the sidelines is useless. You must step into the arena, shoulder the responsibility, before success is even possible.”

守正出奇 isn’t armchair wisdom — it’s wisdom born from being in the arena. You have to be on the field before you can talk about defense and offense.

There’s an image from Buddhism that I keep coming back to. Dhammapada, verse 401:

“Like water on a lotus leaf, or a mustard seed on the point of a needle — he who does not cling to sensual pleasures, him do I call a holy man.”

The lotus leaf doesn’t reject the water. The water falls on the leaf, fully in contact. But the water doesn’t stick. The leaf doesn’t absorb. They meet, then each goes its own way.

Not clinging to hype, not clinging to the status quo, not clinging to outcomes. Fully in contact with the world — but not stuck to it.

My work puts me at a unique intersection: where AI meets infrastructure. Every day I see two forces collide — a genuine computing paradigm shift, and all the noise surrounding it. My anchor isn’t a technology or a trend. It’s something deeper: the conviction that value lives in the gaps between layers. Others see systems as stacks. I see the dark spaces between them — and I build until information flows through. This doesn’t expire with any hype cycle, because it’s not about any particular layer. It’s about the act of weaving connections itself.

Closing

Seneca wrote: “You should not copy the bad simply because they are many, nor should you hate the many because they are unlike you.”

Probably the best social media usage guide from 2,000 years ago.

Naval said: “Desire is a contract that you make with yourself to be unhappy until you get what you want.”

Chasing hype is a form of desire. Fear of trends is also a form of desire. Both keep you living in the future instead of the present.

Holding your ground isn’t stubbornness. Embracing change isn’t chasing wind. Cherishing what you have isn’t platitude — it’s the water on the lotus leaf: fully in contact with the world, bound by none of it.

Zeng Guofan also said:

“A troubled mind and anxious thoughts — these are precisely the forge that tempers heroes and refines you to completion.”

So don’t fear confusion. Feeling torn between hype and trends — that itself is the forging process. The key isn’t to eliminate the tension, but to find your anchor — and then, step into the arena.

The tension between hype and trends isn’t a problem to solve. It’s a forge. Find your anchor, step into the arena, and build.

Written on April 1, 2026 — a morning when, predictably, three new AI frameworks were announced.

缘起

今天早上，我在笔记里写下三句话：

对热点，不要趋之若鹜。 对趋势，不要熟视无睹。 要固守本心，拥抱变化，珍惜所拥有的和遇到的一切。

写得很快——就像那种你咀嚼了好几个月、却没意识到的东西，突然成型时那样。

我做AI基础设施相关的工作。每天打开电脑，都有一个新的”革命”在等我。Vibe coding。AI agent框架。又一个号称要改变一切的startup。上周trending的repo，这周已经没人提了。

但与此同时，有些东西确实在发生根本性的变化。GPU算力正在重塑整个计算基础设施。我每天做的基础设施工作，三年前根本不存在。忽略这些变化，和追逐每一个热点一样危险。

问题不在于要不要关注，而在于什么值得关注——什么只是伪装成信号的噪音。

这个问题没有公式。但我找到了三个锚点。

一、对热点，不要趋之若鹜

2019年1月，WeWork估值470亿美元。九个月后，它连IPO都完成不了。估值暴跌78%，CEO套现7亿美元后被扫地出门，公司最终在2023年申请破产。

2022年5月，Terra/Luna一周蒸发了450亿美元。FTX紧随其后。Celsius。Three Arrows Capital。整个加密世界像多米诺骨牌一样倒下。追进去的人，不是因为真正理解了区块链技术，而是因为别人都在赚钱。

模式总是一样的：一个真正的创新（共享办公、区块链）被资本和FOMO不断放大，直到价格与底层价值完全脱节。受伤的不是建设者——是跟风者。

巴菲特讲过一个概念叫”能力圈”：

“圈的大小不重要，重要的是你知道边界在哪。”

追热点的本质，是走出能力圈却以为自己还在里面。你不理解底层逻辑，但你看到了价格在涨、别人在赚、朋友圈在刷——于是你跟进了。这不是投资，是模仿。

Naval Ravikant说得更直接：”Escape competition through authenticity.” 通过真实来逃离竞争。追热点的反面不是躺平，而是诚实地面对一个问题：这件事，我是真的理解还是只是害怕错过？

AI领域正在经历同样的循环。Y Combinator 2025年冬季批次中，25%的创业公司代码库95%是AI生成的。听起来很酷。但研究显示，AI生成的代码安全漏洞率是人工的2.74倍，资深开发者用AI工具后反而慢了19%。”Vibe coding”这个词是Karpathy造的，但他的定义是”完全放弃理解代码本身”——这是一个warning，不是一个recommendation。

SEC已经开始对”AI washing”开罚单——在没有实质AI功能的产品上贴”AI-powered”标签。这是我们这个时代的”.com”后缀。

老子说：上善若水。水善利万物而不争。

水不争。水不急着去所有人都在的地方。水找到别人避开的低处。正因如此——没有什么比它更强大。

不争，不是不动。是不被别人的运动裹挟。

二、对趋势，不要熟视无睹

1975年，柯达工程师Steven Sasson造出了世界上第一台数码相机。10000像素。

他把它带给管理层。管理层说：好东西，但我们的胶卷业务每年赚160亿。别搞了。

2012年，柯达申请破产。

Kodak的悲剧不是技术盲区——他们发明了那个技术。悲剧在于，他们看到了趋势，选择了不看。

Blockbuster的故事更荒诞。2000年，Netflix上门求收购，开价5000万。Blockbuster笑着拒绝了。当时Blockbuster有9000多家门店，84000名员工。十年后，它申请破产。Netflix现在市值3000亿。

一位前Blockbuster高管后来承认：”数字化会改变Blockbuster的业务……但它不是杀手。真正的杀手是Blockbuster自己。”

杀死你的不是变化，是你对变化的回避。

Marcus Aurelius在《沉思录》里写道：

“宇宙即变化，我们的生命由思想塑造。”

他还说：”留意万物皆为变化的结果，习惯这样的认知：自然最喜欢做的事，就是改变现有的形态。”这不是鸡汤——这是一个罗马皇帝在战场上、在瘟疫中写下的实操哲学。变化不是意外，变化是默认状态。

老子用水来解释这件事：天下莫柔弱于水，而攻坚强者莫之能胜。

水不抗拒变化。水就是变化本身。它不需要成为石头来对抗石头——它绕过去，渗进去，年深日久，石头被切开了。

趋势就是水。你可以不喜欢它，但你不能假装它不存在。GPU算力正在改变计算范式——这不是炒作，这是我每天工作的现实。LLM不是会消失的时髦玩意——它正在重写软件工程的基本假设。

热点和趋势的区别在于持久性。热点在钱撤走后消失。趋势在兴奋消退后依然重塑格局。

区分两者的方法其实很简单：钱撤走之后，它还在不在？

三、固守本心，拥抱变化，珍惜一切

如果只是”不追热点”加”不忽略趋势”，那不过是一句正确的废话。真正难的是第三句：怎么同时做到固守和拥抱？

NVIDIA给了一个答案。

1993年，三个人在Denny’s餐厅里创业，每人出了200美元。Jensen Huang后来说，如果他当时知道这条路有多难——”a million times harder”——他可能不会开始。1997年，公司只剩一个月的现金流。他内部演讲的口头禅是：”我们离倒闭只有30天。”

2006年，NVIDIA发布了CUDA。一个让GPU做通用计算的平台。当时没人在乎。游戏公司不在乎，科学计算社区不在乎，华尔街不在乎。

Huang没有在移动芯片火的时候追移动芯片，没有转向社交媒体，没有在矿工买光所有GPU的时候给公司重新贴上加密货币的标签。他坚守GPU计算，三十年。

然后AI浪潮来了。突然间，全世界发现只有NVIDIA有这个基础设施。2025年10月，NVIDIA成为第一家市值超过5万亿美元的公司。

孙子兵法有四个字：守正出奇。以正合，以奇胜。守正是固守本心——你的根基不动。出奇是拥抱变化——在根基之上，你不断适应、不断探索。NVIDIA守的”正”是GPU计算，出的”奇”是每一次浪潮来的时候，它已经准备好了。

曾国藩说得更实在：

“凡天下事，在局外呐喊议论，总是无益；必须躬身入局，挺膺负责，方有成事之可冀。”

守正出奇不是坐在家里的智慧——是躬身入局之后的智慧。你得先站在场上，才有资格谈守和攻。

佛教里有一个意象，我很喜欢。《法句经》第401偈：

“如同荷叶上的水珠，如同针尖上的芥子——不执着于感官愉悦的人，我称他为圣者。”

荷叶不拒绝水——水落在叶上，叶与水完全接触。但水不沾叶。叶不吸水。它们相遇，然后各自自在。

不执着于热点，不执着于现状，也不执着于结果。和世界充分接触——但不被黏住。

我的工作让我站在一个特殊的位置：AI与基础设施的交叉点。每天我都看到两种力量的碰撞——真正的计算范式转移，和围绕它的一切噪音。我的锚点不是某个技术，不是某个趋势，而是一个更底层的信念：价值住在层与层之间的缝隙里。别人看到层，我看到连接。这个信念不会因为热点变化而过时，因为它不是关于任何一层的——它是关于建造脉络本身。

收束

Seneca写道：”不要因为他人众多就去模仿，也不要因为他人与你不同就去厌恶。”

这大概是2000年前最好的社交媒体使用指南。

Naval说：”Desire is a contract that you make with yourself to be unhappy until you get what you want.” 欲望是你和自己签的一份合同——在得到想要的东西之前，你同意保持不快乐。

追热点是一种欲望。对趋势的恐惧也是一种欲望。两者都让你活在未来而不是当下。

固守本心不是固执。拥抱变化不是追风。珍惜一切不是鸡汤——是荷叶上的水珠：与万物接触，不为万物所缚。

曾国藩最后还说了一句：

“困心衡虑，正是磨练英雄，玉汝于成。”

所以，别怕困惑。在热点和趋势之间感到撕裂，这本身就是锻造的过程。关键不是消除张力，而是找到你的锚点——然后，躬身入局。

写于2026年4月1日，一个又有三个新AI框架发布的早晨。